Not credible: President Bush's analysis of information is lacking

By Jesse D. Hamilton
Senior Staff Writer
October 18, 2006

A recent study conducted by the highly respected Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in conjunction with Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad estimates violent deaths in Iraq since the U.S. led invasion in 2003 are much higher than previous thought. The independent study concluded there was a 95 percent chance that civilian casualties range from 392,000 to 942,000, with the figure now thought to be over 600,000.

Given the high number, it comes as no surprise that President George W. Bush has deemed this new estimate “not credible.” Whether or not these estimates are correct, the irony of our president calling something “not credible” is on the same level as Dick Cheney accusing a hunter of being a “bad shot.”

History has shown that information emanating from the bowels of the Bush Administration concerning the war in Iraq is anything but credible. Let’s review some past examples, straight from the mouth of the president himself.

“Evidence from intelligence sources, secret communications and statements by people now in custody reveal that Saddam Hussein aids and protects terrorists, including members of al-Qaeda,” Bush said in Jan. 2003.

Strange this information was thought credible considering the U.S. intelligence community later admitted to having low confidence in this intelligence.

“But for those who say we haven’t found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they’re wrong, we found them,” Bush said in May 2003.

Undeniably “not credible.”

The vice president makes a crack at it as well: “I think they’re in the last throes, if you will, of the insurgency,” Dick Cheney said in June 2005.

Over 1,000 U.S. soldiers have died in Iraq in the 17 months since that statement. Granted, Cheney was only stating his opinion, one that can now be properly labeled as “not credible.”

Finally, when it comes to speaking of the civilian deaths in Iraq, Bush had this to say on Dec. 12, 2005: “How many Iraqi citizens have died in this war? I would say 30,000, more or less, have died as a result of the initial incursion and the ongoing violence against Iraqis.”

Even though this was the president’s estimate 10 months ago, it in no way matches up with the estimates found in the Johns Hopkins survey. Should we truly be surprised with that though, given the current administration’s history of spewing skewed information?

We may never know whether or not this study has provided an accurate number of actual violent deaths in Iraq, because studies like this are often difficult to prove. We can, however, be certain that the study was conducted by a knowledgeable group of professionals working at one of our nation’s most highly respected universities.

So, if President Bush wants to describe this survey or anything else for that matter as “not credible,” let him. He lost his credibility a long time ago.

hamiltj1@lasalle.edu