Obama controls Internet, opponents play catch-up

By Joe Gauger
Collegian Editor
September 19, 2007

The Internet is expected to play a central role in the 2008 presidential race. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean’s 2004 bid for the Democratic nomination showed the Net’s potential to organize support and raise funds, though that campaign notoriously disintegrated at the start of the primaries. But communication via e-mail is fast, cheap and effective. Press releases, petitions and donation solicitations proliferate with a range and pace never before possible. But this does not seem to translate into real support in poll numbers or campaign donations. E-mail presents a way to involve some who would otherwise not be motivated to participate in politics, but it conversely allows supporters to feel that they have made their requisite contribution to their candidate merely by forwarding a message to others.

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill) is the candidate who benefits most from the Internet in this race. Barring an unforeseen collapse à la Dean, he has the potential to become the first presidential candidate to see significant returns on Internet-based campaign efforts. Dean’s poll-number lead evaporated shortly before the Iowa caucuses in 2004 as supporters abandoned him for the North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and Senator John Kerry (D-Mass.), both of whom supported the Iraq War. Considering Obama’s policy positions, such a last-minute exodus is unlikely in this race.

Another major difference between Obama today and Dean four years ago is that Obama relies more heavily on traditional sources of campaign funds. While small donors attracted and organized via the Internet are important to Obama’s campaign, 44 percent of his donors have given more than $2,300 but less than the maximum of $4,600. By contrast, 44 percemt of Sen. Hillary Clinton’s (D-NY) donations have been $4,600 (opensecrets.org). Both leading fundraisers have an impressive list of personal contacts which have helped to generate their unprecedented totals.

In terms of interest, no one can compete with Obama. Every candidate’s Web site is linked to their profiles on MySpace, Facebook, Flickr and YouTube. Most are adorned with links to other sites, but the four abovementioned are always included.

Obama’s YouTube channel easily outstrips those of other candidates: He boasts over 11 million views. His nearest competitor is Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) with almost 4 million and all others trail far behind. Clinton has 894,000; former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney leads Republicans with 767,000; Congressman Dennis Kucinich(D-OH) makes a surprising showing with 507,000.

Obama also beats his rivals soundly in terms of Facebook supporters, which indicate a firmer commitment than mere interest on YouTube. The Illinois Senator totals 145,000 supporters; Clinton’s pool is about a third that size, which is double the total for Edwards. Paul and Kucinich are again overrepresented in comparison to their general poll numbers.

Former senator Fred D. Thompson (R-Tenn.) has made a visible effort to utilize the Internet in a similar way. In his official announcement, made through his campaign Web site, he seemed to be reaching out to younger voters by citing his work on government reform and casting himself as an outsider. According to hitwise.com, Thompson won 34.7 percent of Internet traffic among presidential Web sites last week; his newly minted campaign has not caught up to his opponents in other Internet venues I examined.

For all his strength with the Internet crowd, Obama consistently lags behind Clinton in general polls.

His message of hope may resonate with the young and draw large numbers of donors, but Net savvy has not been sufficient to overcome the New York senator’s name recognition and decades worth of political connections within the Democratic establishment. He will still have considerable ground to cover as the primaries approach at an ever-quickening pace.

gaugerj1@lasalle.edu