Predicting Oscar - A look at the likely outcomes for this year's show

By Frank Visco
Collegian Editor
February 21, 2007

Although it saddens me to say it, there shouldn’t be much Oscar suspense this Sunday night. Excluding Best Picture, many of the big contests already seem to be over with. Nonetheless, here are my predictions and hopes on the big eight:

Best Picture: Letters From Iwo Jima is said to be the best of the bunch, but a win is doubtful. Despite great reviews, it’s also unlikely that The Queen will take the top spot. As a result, it seems to be a three-picture race between Babel, The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine. History shows the Academy loves giving the award to message films like Babel, but The Departed is a better film, so I’m predicting it will win. As long as Little Miss Sunshine doesn’t win, I’ll be happy, though (I love the film, but if it wins, it will be derided for years as unworthy).

Best Director: Paul Greengrass will get a fair share of love for United 93, but there’s almost no way the Academy won’t be bestowing this year’s honor on Martin Scorsese, arguably the best director alive, considering he has yet to win one. He’s likely to win, and he’s also my pick, since Alfonso Cuaron wasn’t even nominated for Children of Men.

Best Actor: Will Smith and Ryan Gosling are pretty much out of it (the nomination itself seems to have been the reward for them). If DiCaprio had been nominated for The Departed, I’d say he could take it, but unless he’s got tons of spillover love for that film, he won’t win for Blood Diamond. Forrest Whitaker is the front-runner for his powerhouse performance in The Last King of Scotland, and he will likely win. However, I’m hoping Peter O’Toole swipes the award for Venus, because it’s a great performance and he’s been snubbed so many times.

Best Actress: Although all five nominated performances are excellent, Helen Mirren’s performance in The Queen has been such an awards hog, it seems inconceivable that she wouldn’t win. Still, I’d love to see Kate Winslet walk away with the Oscar. She’s one of the best actresses working today, and she nailed her role in Little Children.

Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy has been the expected front-runner for qite a while, but his horrible image and a starring role in Norbit could hurt his chances. Jackie Earle Haley is deserving but, it’s doubtful that he’ll win, despite being this year’s comeback king. Djimon Hounsou is a great actor, but his work in Blood Diamond is far from his best, so you can count him out. As a result, if Murphy doesn’t take it, one should bank on Mark Wahlberg forThe Departed or Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. Both men give good performances, and a win for either could be viewed as an acknowledgement for their respective perfect ensemble casts. However, my hopes lie with Arkin, whose been turning in great work for decades and provided most of the emotional pulse in Little Miss Sunshine.

Best Supporting Actress: Adrianna Barraza and Rinko Kikuhci were both good in Babel, but they will most likely cancel each other out. Abigail Breslin doesn’t seem to have much of a chance either, despite her winning performance in Little Miss Sunshine. Jennifer Hudson has long been predicted to win, and her performance in Dreamgirls is the best thing about the film. Odds are she’ll take it, but I would love to see Cate Blanchett walk away a winner for her role in Notes on a Scandal. Although she’s already got an Oscar, she’s consistently shown excellence, so I wouldn’t have a problem with her winning another. Whereas Hudson has only acted in one film, Blanchett churned out great performances in three films (Notes on a Scandal, Babel and The Good German) in this year alone.

Best Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine seems to be the favorite, as writer Michael Arndt has gotten a lot of love this year, and I wouldn’t be bothered by his winning. However, this category is anyone’s game, as The Queen, Letters From Iwo Jima, Babel and Pan’s Labyrinth (which I think has the best chance for an upset victory) are all strong contenders.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Those in the industry seem to love Borat, but considering much of that film was made up on the spot, it shouldn’t win in this category. I love Children of Men, but its greatest strength is not its script, so it probably won’t win here (look for it to win Best Cinematography). Little Children and Notes on a Scandal could both pull out the victory, but I’m putting my money on William Monahan’s script for The Departed. He took everything that was good about Infernal Affairs and made it even better.

viscof1@lasalle.edu