Columnist offers analysis and predictions concerning Phillies 2006 season

By Mike McDonald
Collegian Staff
April 5, 2006

Thirteen years. It has been 13 years since the Fightin’ Phils have made it to the postseason. These 13 years have ranged from horrible to mediocre.

In that span of time, two managers (Terry Francona and Larry Bowa) have come and gone, as have players like Rico Brogna, Doug Glanville and Jim Thome.

Also gone by the wayside are Travis Lee, Omar Daal, Vicente Padilla and Nelson Figueroa – the players received from Arizona for Curt Schilling in 2000.

Let’s also toss in Placido Polanco, Mike Timlin and Bud Smith – the proceeds from the 2002 Scott Rolen deal.

Since 1993, the Eagles have gone to the playoffs seven times. The Sixers have played in the postseason six times in the past 13 years and the Flyers have done it 11 times since 1993.

The Phillies come into the season with 9,879 all-time losses. With this total, the team has established itself as the most losing franchise in professional baseball history and maybe of all professional sports. They have won only five pennants and just one World Series in 122 years.

However, we are entering a new period in Phillies baseball: the Pat Gillick era. The doom and gloom surrounding Ed Wade’s reign as general manager has subsided. And there appears to be a sense of optimism around the city.

No, not all of the Phillies’ problems were solved in the offseason, but still there seems to be some good feelings about the Phillies’ 2006 roster. First, take a look at the lineup.

There were a couple big changes made to the starting lineup, and they can be summed up basically by one trade. Gillick shipped Jim Thome out to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for centerfielder Aaron Rowand. This trade affected both the centerfield and first-base situation.

Jim Thome did nothing but good for the Phillies in his time here, but with the NL Rookie of the Year waiting behind him, it was clear that the time had come for Thome to move on. Gillick made the fans happy with this move, taking care of two birds with one stone. He opened the door for Ryan Howard to play every day, and he handled the situation in center by bringing in a good, young player.

The outfield looks pretty solid. Pat Burrell is coming off a good season in which his production was hindered slightly by a couple of injuries. Rowand looks like he will be a nice fit with the Phillies, and coming over from the World Champions, he might bring a winning mindset with him.

Bobby Abreu, whose name was surrounded by trade rumors in the offseason, is back for another season in Philadelphia. Bobby will put up the good numbers as he always does, and continue to be a solid contributor for the team.

Ryan Howard is coming off one of the best spring training campaigns in Phillies history. He will keep it rolling into the regular season. Look for Howard’s name on the NL home run leaderboard all season long.

At second base, Chase Utley will continue to develop into the best second baseman in baseball. Chase will most likely find himself playing in the All-Star game this summer. It will be his first trip, but it certainly will not be his last.

Jimmy Rollins carries a 36-game hitting streak into the season. It will be very interesting here in the early going to see how far he can take the streak. He has a long way to go before he can even begin to think about a record, but 36 is a pretty good start. It would definitely not be easy, but by the end of April, Jimmy could be streaking right into the record books.

The third-base position is not the strongest one on the roster, as David Bell has frustrated fans with his lack of production over the last few years. Despite the occasional great play, Bell makes his share of errors out there as well. The injury problems Bell is having here at the start of the season could open the door for Abraham Nunez to potentially work his way into a starting role over the course of the season.

Catcher is the other weak spot in the lineup. Mike Lieberthal is a former All-Star whose skills have noticeably deteriorated over the years. Pat Gillick has brought in veteran Sal Fasano to spell Lieberthal at times, and Fasano may see more playing time than Todd Pratt saw in the past few years in Philadelphia.

So far, the offense looks pretty good. There are a couple weak spots, but overall, the starting eight should not be the primary area for concern.

That’s where the pitching staff comes in.

The Phillies’ pitching staff is not the best in the league, to say the least. There are a few obvious problems.

When Pat Gillick came to the Phillies, job one was to re-sign Billy Wagner. That clearly didn’t go too well. Wagner took a trip up the New Jersey Turnpike to play for a division rival, and the Phils were forced to replace him with Tom Gordon. Gordon is over the hill, and even if he can do a nice job this year, he is still a noticeable downgrade from Wagner.

The team lacks something that it has not had since Curt Schilling called Philadelphia home: a legitimate number-one starter. Some people say that a team does not need to have a staff ace to be successful. Well, it may not be crucial to every team, but it certainly does not hurt.

Charlie Manuel has his rotation slated with these five names: Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Cory Lidle, Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson.

This rotation looks like one that could impress some observers, provided that Floyd and Madson can step up and, as Ed Wade would say, play to their potential. Both young pitchers have shown promise. As of right now, though, they remain relatively untested as Major League starters.

Jon Lieber is a decent pitcher, but he is by no means a number-one starter. Brett Myers showed last season that he can dominate. However, he has also shown in past seasons that he can be a head case. Cory Lidle would be a good four or five for most teams, and he should have another decent season this year. The questions come in the latter part of that rotation, with the young pitchers stepping up into big roles.

The bullpen has a few new faces this year as well. Arthur Rhodes looks like he may prove to be a nice acquisition, as he joins Rheal Cormier and Aaron Fultz as the only lefthanders on the Fightins’ staff. Rhodes should help to bolster down the back end of the pen.
Ryan Franklin might be a quality arm coming out of the pen. Geoff Geary, on the other hand, might not be.

The reason why Ed Wade was universally considered a bad general manager was not the way that he went about business in the offseason. Wade did a decent job of bringing in players (i.e Thome and Wagner) between November and March. Wade’s biggest problem was that he was not able to address the team needs in the middle of the season and bring in players to solve the problems.

This is where the switch to Pat Gillick provides some hope. Gillick’s offseason was not a particularly busy one. However, Fans are optimistic that Gillick will be able to bring in an impact player in the middle of the season, and address the situation to do what it takes to get this team over the hump.

Gillick has already shown a penchant to do this by shipping right-hander Robinson Tejeda and minor-league outfielder Jake Blalock (brother of Hank) to Texas for outfielder Dave Dellucci, who smacked 29 homers last year and drove in 65 runs. Although the losses of Tejeda, a pitcher with great stuff, and Blalock, who, will be a star if he follows in his brother’s footsteps, are unfortunate, this acquisition sets up many trade possibilities for the Phillies in the future.

The team will play 162 games, but the Phillies know first-hand that a bad April can basically end a team’s chances of success. It is important for the Phils to start off strong, because with the Braves and the new-look Mets in the division, it is not going to be easy to make a postseason run.

Postseason run – the Phillies haven’t been one of those in quite a while. Thirteen years, to be exact.

mcdonaldm2@lasalle.edu