Super Bowl XLI has arrived: Columnist breaks down Sunday's big game between Chicago and Indianapolis

By Adam Bagni
Collegian Staff
January 31, 2007

There have been some radical statements in this year’s Collegian regarding the NFL. Frankly, some of them have been downright terrible.

Among them: “The Redskins will win the NFC East,” “The Bills will beat the Colts” and “Favre is damaging his legacy.”

My criticism is not only for my colleagues though, it’s also for myself: “I have no doubt that the Giants are for real,” and here’s my personal favorite, “The Bears won’t go past the first-round of the playoffs.”

It wasn’t the best NFL season for the Collegian Sports Section, but hey, at least we aren’t afraid to go out on a limb. So I will (reluctantly) attempt to salvage some level of dignity for our small student paper, with a comprehensive, detailed and accurate Super Bowl preview.

That being said, don’t put money on it.

When the Bears run:

The Colts’ run defense has been abysmal all year. Indianapolis has allowed lousy teams like Jacksonville (375 yards) and Houston (191 yards) to run all over them this season, giving up a league-worst 173 yards per game. In the playoffs, however, it’s been a different story. Behind the return of safety Bob Sanders, the Colts have only allowed an average of 73 yards on the ground in their three post-season games.

For Chicago, running backs Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson have rushed for a combined 1,857 yards and 12 touchdowns. Jones ran for two touchdowns in the Divisional round and later went off for 123 yards and another pair of touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints in the NFC Championship Game.

I know the Colts’ run defense has been better in the playoffs, but it has been getting progressively worse in the three-game stretch (albeit moderately). If I had to make a pick though, the Colts defense has just been too unreliable. Edge: Bears.

When the Bears pass:

Quarterback Rex Grossman certainly has a love-hate relationship with the Chicago faithful. The love is based on a 13-3 regular season record and a trip to the Super Bowl. The hate is his 74 percent passer rating – seventh worst in the NFL.

Grossman has been inconsistent throughout the year, mixing in performances ranging from incredibly brilliant, to markedly average, to downright awful. His situation reminds one of the 1986 Penn State National Champions. Not that I’m old enough to remember that game, but the situation is the same. The Nittany Lions’ quarterback, John Shaffer, was just a guy whose job was to simply not lose the game, as opposed to winning it. Most claim that Penn State’s upset victory that year (over a Miami team that featured Jimmy Johnson, Michael Irvin and Vinny Testaverde) was despite the play of Shaffer. Bottom line, though: the guy quarterbacked the team to a National Championship.

Grossman is facing a tough secondary, and he will have a resurgent Dwight Freeney breathing down his neck. Freeney does an excellent job of helping collapse the pocket, allowing teammates like Robert Mathis to get to the quarterback. There’s no way Grossman won’t make mistakes in this game. Edge: Colts.

When the Colts run:

Rookie running back Joseph Addai ran for just over 1,000 yards this season for the Colts. One thousand yards, however, is increasingly becoming less impressive.

The Bears’ defensive line is strong, and five-time Pro Bowler Brian Urlacher is a consistent hole plug in the middle of that defense. On average, the Bears give up less than 100 yards rushing per game. This one’s easy. Edge: Bears.

When the Colts pass:

Measuring the Colts’ passing game is particularly difficult. On one hand, you have a scary Bears defense that was among the league’s top units during the regular season. On the other hand, you have a “six-five, 230-pound quarterback, laser, rocket arm.”

This season Peyton Manning threw for nearly 4,400 yards, making the Colts the second-best passing team in the league. Not only does he have his record-setting partner Marvin Harrison at his disposal, but also solid options like Reggie Wayne, Ben Utecht and Dallas Clark. The Colts have thrown for 70 more yards on average than what the Bears typically allow (195 ypg). However, Chicago has two dangerous defensive backs in Ricky Manning and Charles Tillman, who intercepted five passes apiece this year. Urlacher is a rare linebacker, too, in that he can run step-for-step with many receivers and backs.

Betting against Manning, though, in the one phase of the game that he can control, is like betting against the house. Sometimes you win, but more often than not, you lose. Edge: Colts.

Special teams:

Measuring special teams is always interesting, considering the various aspects that comprise it.

The Bears’ Devin Hester has clearly been the NFL’s best return specialist this year. Not only has he managed to make the Pro Bowl in his debut season, but he has also compiled the best highlight package of any player in the league. The most recognizable of these was his 108-yard missed field goal return for a touchdown Week 10 against the Giants (tying an NFL record that was, ironically, set by his teammate Nathan Vasher on a nearly identical play a year prior). During the regular season, Hester returned two kickoffs and three punts for touchdowns, while totaling the best punt return average in the league.

Chicago may have the edge in return yards, but kicking has always been the most important special teams element in the Super Bowl. Only LaDainian Tomlinson scored more points than the Bears’ Robbie Gould this year, who has never missed a field goal inside 30 yards. Then again, he’s never even attempted a kick over 50 yards. Oh, and by the way, his counterpart is Adam “Clutch” Vinatieri. In almost any other year Gould would get the nod. But when Vinatieri, widely regarded as the greatest clutch kicker in NFL history, is on the other sideline, it’s automatic. Edge: Colts.

Coaching:

Obviously one of the main story lines of this year’s Super Bowl is that both teams’ head coaches are black. It is the first time any African-American has led his team to this point.

Lovie Smith won NFL Coach of the Year after leading Chicago to an 11-5 record last year. He’s had the help of an excellent Defensive Coordinator, Ron Rivera, who will almost surely become an NFL head coach sometime soon.

Indianapolis, though, has the clear coaching advantage. Tony Dungy has been an NFL coach for 25 years, and a head coach for a decade. Defensive Coordinator Ron Meeks is also on the head coach trail, while Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore has 30 years of NFL experience. Edge: Colts.

The Bears have a great defense, but Super Bowls too often come down to the play of each team’s quarterback. In that respect, Manning blows Grossman out of the water. The Colts will win it, 31-20. Peyton Manning will win the Super Bowl MVP award.

bagnia1@lasalle.edu