Jury still out on Brad Lidge deal

By Frank Visco
Collegian Editor
November 14, 2007

A third baseman and pitching.

Long before the Phillies ended their playoff bid against the (then) red-hot Colorado Rockies, everyone—the fans, the players, Uncle Charlie—knew these were the two things the team needed to acquire before the 2008 season.

General manager Pat Gillick turned heads last week at the general managers’ meetings at the Hyatt Grand Cypress when he indicated that improving third base was not an off-season priority. Noting that the team does not have many chips to bargain with, he said, “I don’t know if it will be addressed… because we’re going to concentrate on improving our pitching.”

A few days later, Gillick made moves toward improving his pitching when he dealt Michael Bourn, Geoff Geary and third-base prospect Mike Costanzo to the Astros for closer Brad Lidge and utility infielder Eric Bruntlett. The hope seems to be that Lidge’s acquisition will push Brett Myers back into a starting role and thus improve the rotation without hurting the bullpen.

I am for moving Myers back to the rotation, specifically because Curt Schilling resigned with Boston and the Phillies are unlikely to outbid other teams for Japanese superstar Hiroki Kuroda. However, I do have concerns about replacing Myers (who had a 2.87 ERA as a closer and converted 88 percent of his save opportunities) with Lidge.

Although he was one of the best in the game as recently as three years ago, Lidge has fallen on hard times. Over the last two seasons he has amassed 51 saves but blown 14, which equates to a 78 percent success rate. More concerning is his 4.37 ERA over the last two seasons, which could be detrimental to a team that thrives on late-game rallies. Last, you can’t discount the fact that Lidge will be coming off off-season knee surgery, even if the Phillies top brass and Lidge say it’s a non-issue.

However, if Lidge manages to make improvements (as he did ERA-wise last season), the move could be very beneficial to the Phillies, as Myers would provide a great boost to the rotation. Myers has great upside as a starter and has proven, at the very least, to be a competent innings-eater that can churn out quality starts on a consistent basis.

Still there are other concerns surrounding the loss of Bourn and Costanzo. With Bourn gone, and Aaron Rowand likely to leave soon, the Phillies are in the process of losing two key ingredients in their solid five-man outfield. Now, barring a trade or a miracle Rowand signing, the outfield will be comprised solely of Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino and Jason Werth. Although all three players performed admirably last year, the pool has nonetheless been drastically weakened.

Meanwhile, it is odd that a team so in need of a third baseman would trade their best prospect at the position. Although he hasn’t come along as well, or as quickly, as the Phillies had hoped, Costanzo improved his game last season, hitting .270 with 27 home runs, 92 runs and 86 RBIs at Reading last year. Obviously, teams have to deal talent to get talent, but considering the Phillies’ lack of offense at third base, this move is somewhat troubling.

This past season Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs and Abraham Nuñez didn’t get the job done at the position. Phillies third basemen jointly ranked in the bottom five of the National League in every major offensive category, posting last-place finishes in runs (66), slugging percentage (.368) and OPS (.688). They also managed to tie the Dodgers as the league-worst in extra base hits (45) and total bases (225).

In his defense, Gillick responded by indicating that if the team has better pitching it won’t need as many runs. On top of that, almost every worthwhile third baseman out there comes with demands the Phillies are unlikely to meet. Alex Rodriguez and his $300 million price tag are ludicrous, and the Marlins are demanding far too much for Miguel Cabrera.

Meanwhile, other possibilities like Garret Atkins and Mike Lowell are conceivable, but unlikely considering the bulk of money the Phillies will be investing in Ryan Howard another year down the line. When three-quarters of your infield are among the best players in the league (all silver sluggers, all possible MVP candidates), and will soon be paid as such, it’s pretty tough to justify dishing out loads of money for a third baseman.

With that in mind, the Costanzo move is even more troubling, because he didn’t need to be a stud. However, with things as they are, the Phillies won’t fare too badly by entrenching Greg Dobbs at the position on a more permanent basis, especially if they get a solid defensive backup to step in for the ousted Nuñez. Although his numbers at third were piss-poor last year, he had an overall productive season, contributing a .272 average with 55 RBIs, 20 doubles, three triples and 10 home runs in just 324 at bats. On top of that, he showed good form in clutch situations after the 7th inning (when the Phillies made their bread and butter last season), batting .292 with 11 RBIs.

With extended playing time at third, Dobbs will likely repeat this consistency and could build on those numbers. This would be fine for the Phillies, considering the potency of the rest of the lineup, especially if, as Gillick indicates, the pitching is improved.

As it stands, I have mixed feelings about this trade. It may turn out to be advantageous for the club, but right now it has the potential the be just as bad as it does good. Although Dobbs should be OK at third, the outfield has lost significant ground, and so something needs to be addressed there.

Still, if Lidge can get back on track, this move will be a coup for the Phillies, because it will have resulted, in all practical purposes, in the acquisition of a first-rate, top of the rotation starter. However, for now, it seems appropriate to label this one a wait-and-see.

viscof1@lasalle.edu